Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.933483e-05 0.000094 0.000111 0.000129 0.000150 0.000172 0.000197
2025-02-02 6.118909e-05 0.000081 0.000104 0.000131 0.000164 0.000200 0.000243
2025-02-09 4.965765e-05 0.000071 0.000097 0.000130 0.000169 0.000215 0.000271
2025-02-16 4.313408e-05 0.000067 0.000096 0.000135 0.000183 0.000239 0.000310
2025-02-23 3.704423e-05 0.000061 0.000093 0.000136 0.000190 0.000256 0.000339
2025-03-02 2.956610e-05 0.000053 0.000085 0.000131 0.000190 0.000262 0.000356
2025-03-09 2.420083e-05 0.000047 0.000080 0.000127 0.000191 0.000270 0.000374
2025-03-16 2.043358e-05 0.000043 0.000077 0.000126 0.000195 0.000282 0.000397
2025-03-23 1.773874e-05 0.000040 0.000075 0.000127 0.000201 0.000295 0.000423
2025-03-30 1.492335e-05 0.000037 0.000071 0.000126 0.000204 0.000305 0.000443
2025-04-06 1.210078e-05 0.000033 0.000067 0.000123 0.000203 0.000311 0.000458
2025-04-13 1.050047e-05 0.000031 0.000066 0.000123 0.000209 0.000324 0.000483
2025-04-20 7.758008e-06 0.000026 0.000060 0.000118 0.000206 0.000327 0.000496
2025-04-27 6.440239e-06 0.000024 0.000059 0.000119 0.000213 0.000343 0.000527
2025-05-04 5.093973e-06 0.000022 0.000056 0.000118 0.000216 0.000354 0.000552
2025-05-11 4.503400e-06 0.000021 0.000057 0.000122 0.000227 0.000376 0.000591
2025-05-18 3.720481e-06 0.000020 0.000055 0.000124 0.000234 0.000392 0.000622
2025-05-25 2.578710e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000119 0.000231 0.000394 0.000633
2025-06-01 1.824534e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000116 0.000230 0.000399 0.000650
2025-06-08 1.351515e-06 0.000013 0.000046 0.000115 0.000233 0.000410 0.000674
2025-06-15 1.045065e-06 0.000012 0.000045 0.000116 0.000239 0.000424 0.000703
2025-06-22 7.304593e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000114 0.000241 0.000433 0.000725
2025-06-29 4.456536e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000111 0.000240 0.000438 0.000739